2010 Padre Predictions, Prognostications, and Ponderings: Ducksnorts Edition

If you don't regularly read Geoff Young's blog, Ducksnorts, I'll give you two reasons right now:

1. He knows what he's talking about when it comes to the Padres (and other things too).
2. Good analogies/metaphors/literary & musical references.

This was one of my favorite lines from his piece called, "Five Questions: San Diego Padres", published over at Hardball Times.

"Like morning fog and wagonloads of 'Zonies, firing the hitting coach is an annual rite of summer in San Diego."

So true, so true. But 2010 should be different...

This season should be different in that there are better young hitters with upside but more importantly, fans realize that scapegoating a hitting instructor just isn't going to fly anymore. I agree with Geoff Young's following assessment:

".....when different coaches continue to yield similar results, perhaps it's time to look elsewhere for answers. Superior on-field talent is a good place to start."

 The Alderson regime seemed to always stand so steadfastly behind their organizational strategies and those they drafted that there was little recourse other than to fire coaches. This was a foolhardy approach by Alderson as most fans are not idiots (didn't Dave Magadan go on to be the hitting coach for the Red Sox in 2007 the year they won the WS?).......furthermore.......Sandy Alderson is a dick. I rest my case.

Check out Geoff's article for more on Chase Headley, Matt Latos, the fortunes of Randy Ready, the emergence of youth, and the commitment of our ownership.

It is only spring and on these mornings the gloom of June is conspicuously absent.......but with the onset of April comes the annual spring-break throngs to San Diego and the omnipresent threat of a 'Zonie influx. Get to work, Mr. Ready.

**I went to school at Northern Arizona......'Zonies = Sock tans and Teva sandals

Take These Padre Prognostications To The Bank!!! (disregard my miserable NCAA hoops predictions)

A few weeks ago I answered some Padre related questions for Daniel Shoptaw (aka "The Baseball Blogger Alliance God"), author of the St. Louis Cardinals blog C70 At The Bat. Daniel posted my answers in a segment called Playing Pepper. 

Since the day I answered  these questions and forecasted how I thought the Padres 2010 season would shake out many have stepped forth with an opinion on our Friars. Most have assessed the Padres as "terrible" and former announcer Matt Vasgersian even went as far as to predict a last place finish for our hometown nine. ESPN the Magazine did over 100 simulations which yielded an average of 69 wins. Have I reconsidered my stance? The short answer is, NO! I've become even more bullish on this team and can't wait for the season to start...(click below to continue reading)



1) How was the off-season?  What kind of grade would you give it?

All things considered, I thought the off-season was a success. We brought in Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod from the Red Sox to fill the rolls of GM and Assistant GM. They've both had success in identifying, drafting, and developing talent so I think that bodes well for the Padres' future. Kevin Kouzmanoff was dealt for OF depth in Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham but most importantly it opened up 3B for Chase Headley who should become more productive at the plate playing his natural position. We also added Jon Garland to help round out the rotation and perhaps most importantly added Jerry Hairston JR. who will provide bench help and be the 'yin' to brother Scott's 'yang'. Padres may translate to "Fathers" but the nickname of Friars means "Brothers". The Padres always field a pair of brothers and Jed Hoyer did his best to accommodate for 2010. (read on)

2) What is the key to success for 2010?

The same for every team: health, luck, and career years from EVERYONE! We have a young team and it'll be fun to watch them learn and grow this year. The key to staying in the wild-card hunt will be a healthy rotation. Chris Young has shown to be dominant at times in the past but he rarely completes the 6th inning let alone an entire season. If he can stay healthy, Kevin Correia repeats last years performance, Jon Garland takes to Petco (what 30 year old pitcher wouldn't?), Clayton Richard continues his growth, and Mat Latos or another young gun ably mans the 5th spot, the 2010 Padres should be all right. Those are a lot of "ifs" and "buts"....

3) What will be the team's strength?

Bullpen and the creation of runs. The Padres bullpen is always solid and 2010 should be no different with Heath Bell and Mike Adams holding down the back end. The offense will also look to create runs in spacious Petco Park. With base stealing threat Everth Cabrera and the above average speed of Tony Gwynn Jr., Will Venable, and Scott Hairston, I can see the sort of aggressive base running that takes advantage of opportunity.

4) What could be their Achilles' heel?
 
Youth, no true #1 on the hill, and a relative lack of power outside of Adrian Gonzalez.

5) Who will be the team's MVP?

If Adrian Gonzalez makes it past the trade deadline he'll be the MVP without question. Since the likelihood of this happening is slim I'm going with Heath Bell. He'll save a lot of games and he's a leader. He's already professed a shot at the World Series. Every team needs a crazy S.O.B. to follow and Heath Bell is ours.

6) Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

I think RHP Matt Latos is still considered a rookie so he's the best candidate of them all.

7) Who will be the breakout player for the team?
 
Chase Headley. His swing started to make gains towards the end of last season and with the move back to his comfort zone at 3B I can see him figuring it out on the offensive side of things. Ditto for Will Venable.

8) Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

Kevin Correia. He's a natural pick because he had a career year last year. Now is his chance to prove it wasn't a fluke.

9) Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

Obviously the elephant in the room is affordable, Gold Glove, power hitting Adrian Gonzalez but I won't be surprised to see Bell dangled before a desperate contender.

10) What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

The Padres will finish in 3rd place at 83-79. They'll be mentioned in the WC race after the all-star break but they'll never make a legitimate push for the post season. This strong effort, however, will ensure that Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell both survive the trade dead line and finish the 2010 season as Padres. To trade either while they have a winning record in July would be organizational suicide and lead to the unraveling of all the good will built in the last year between ownership and the fans.

Take away the miserable end to San Diego's football season, dearest Padres!!!

Better Know Your History: When it comes to picking your NCAA Tournament Brackets.....Don't be an idiot!

As a reminder to myself but also to those who aspire to March Madness greatness, I am posting a poem that I wrote back in 1992.....yes 1992! Somehow it has survived and it is a testament to history unlearned; therefore painfully repeated. Written after the first weekend of March Madness games, eighteen years ago, this was my lament:

Texas Fellows

A Miner killed me today

and five other chaps

A whole state's agony

and mine

condensed into forty minutes

give or take a TV timeout

The poem refers to the University of Texas-El Paso Miners and their 2nd round defeat in '92, of the heavily favored Kansas Jayhawks. (click below to continue reading)

A vivid recollection of brackets busted as I carelessly chose Kansas to win the 1992 Championship. Glory and perhaps destiny, in 1992, was reserved for the Duke Blue Devils of Hill, Hurley and Laettner but that fact did not diminish the pain of having a bracket busted so early. In late March of 1992........the Kansas Jayhawks were forever DEAD to me! 

The process of filling out a yearly NCAA tournament bracket will drive a man to distrust and paranoia on the grandest of scales. I never trusted the Jayhawks again. I didn't trust them the next year when Adonis Jordan and Rex Walters led them to the Final Four nor did I trust them during the Jacque Vaughn and Raef LeFrentz era. Paul Pierce.....please! Even their championship in 2008 was achieved only because of an historic CHOKE by John Calipari's Memphis Tigers. Kansas did not win that championship......Memphis LOST the title.

What am I getting at......

......I picked Kansas to win it all this year. I'm a dumb-ass. 

Moral of the Story:

When a team fucks you in your NCAA March Madness Pool give them the fan-death-sentence! Never choose them again and do what you can to root against them at all costs. Die, Bill Self!

Opinion: Are Scott and BR Angling for Syndication?

Apparently while driving on Friday, I may have listened to Scott and BR for the last time on XX1090. What came to light this weekend was that they are in a contract dispute with the Broadcast Company of the Americas (BCA) essentially involving the tandem's attempt to terminate their contract early (supposed to run through 2012).

Each party is playing it close to the vest with XX1090 owner John Lynch saying that Scott and BR are in violation of the terms of the contract and that there may be tampering by a 3rd party. Scott and BR have only claimed that they are confident that they will be on the radio in San Diego soon.

It wasn't until I read the media column from the North County Times by John Maffei that I received some more insight into this dispute (click below to continue reading).

 From last night's column:

In an e-mail, 1090 vice president of programming Jack Evans said, "BCA has commenced arbitration against Scott and BR in an effort to protect its legal rights and enforce it agreements with them.

"BCA also has serious concerns regarding potential third party interference with Scott and BR's contract and BCA will pursue all legal remedies against any interfering third parties."
Kaplan and Smith have talked on the air about syndicating their show nationally. And a source with knowledge of the situation said the station believes Fox Sports Radio is pursuing the pair for just such a position.
That, however, would put them in direct competition with 1090 ---- on XTRA Sports 1360, one of two other sports stations in San Diego.

An attempt to break the contract by Scott and BR makes sense when the specter of syndication is involved. Scott Kaplan has always made allusions to being something bigger than just a local radio program.

I remember when they had Rick Pitino on as a guest but the interview had nothing to do with Louisville basketball but instead focused on horse racing. This made sense because Pitino owns and races horses and Scott and BR have the Great Friends Stables so clearly there was no harm in the discussion going down that path (although I couldn't give two sh*ts about a horse). But here's the thing........you would have never known that Pitino was a part of this radio interview as Scott dominated it with his personal anecdote about a horse of theirs that had won a big race. Rick Pitino, a giant in college basketball, shut down so that Scott Kaplan could have his moment in the sun.
I have never gotten the impression of self-importance from Billy Ray Smith. I've sent him emails and he's replied with his opinions. I cannot say the same for Scott. Too often the show devolves into "This IS Scott Kaplan's Life"........and that's when I flip over to the Dan Patrick Show.

The Scott and BR Show......."Is what it is"......to borrow a phrase from the GM that Scott loves to bash with such frequency. It's an entertainment program with a slant towards San Diego's sports teams. They get some great insiders as guests but the duo itself rarely boosts your sporting IQ (primarily because Scott doesn't know that much and is always talking.....which shuts down Billy Ray).

Make no mistake about it though; if The Scott and BR Show gets syndicated nationally the nature of the show will change fundamentally. The "Nation" doesn't care about San Diego or the teams they house which means they will have to shift the content of the show to reflect the wider exposure that syndication will garner. When the Chargers, Padres, and San Diego itself stop providing content for the program..........I start listening to books on audio.

Editor's Note (Monday 3/15 @ 8:30 pm):

Scott and BR have posted a statement on their website. If they are indeed stating the facts then this is a classic case of "some real bush league bullshit", on the part of XX1090 owner John Lynch. I stand by the following statements:

• Scott's ego is difficult to handle (I suppose I just paraphrased myself).
• If their show gets picked up and syndicated I won't listen.
• Books on audio need to be given a fair chance.
  

For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children...

After far too long, I finally made it out to a trail for a run today. Beneath the shady comfort of a eucalyptus tree, I stretched long dormant muscles and grappled with the incomprehensible shit storm, that is this world....



I am here and I can run.
There are those who cannot and never will again.

Had I began my running a week ago on the south side of Lake Hodges the nature of my reflections would have been conjured in such amazing contrast. Thought replaced by.....

Tomorrow I must run for no other reason than I can.

r.i.p.CK