Monday, July 23, 2012

Carlos Quentin's NTC is not my biggest fear

In some ways I'm surprised by the Carlos Quentin extension and in other ways I'm just not.

Quentin is a guy who likely would have brought a return of value at the deadline so staying put in San Diego guaranteed for the next three years came as a bit of a shock yesterday. There are also the injury concerns that make this move surprising.


The offense has improved since Carlos Quentin's return from knee surgery and his presence in the middle of the order is a part of that resurgence. He's a guy who can pop it out of PETCO after 8pm* and the batting order needs at least one of those threats. Throwing a little bit of money at Quentin, along with the impending ownership change, provides a message of hope to fans. San Diego Padres fans are in dire need of this. I'm a big believer in hope. And belief.

*I don't have quantifiable proof that this has happened but I sense it. I sense that Quentin has muscles that are capable of such a feat. His 5 o'clock shadow** also portends late hour tower power.
** I don't even know what I mean. I'm just rationalizing now.

As I said,  I'm surprised and I'm not surprised.

So what's the problem? People are concerned about the full NTC* that General Manager Josh Byrnes granted Quentin. Worries from fans seem to be rooted in the days of Klesko, Nevin, and Giles. This is a legitimate worry. I don't think that offering NTCs will become this front office's MO but if it does then I will start sharing your fears.

The truth of the matter is that Carlos Quentin is a legitimate threat** and if the Padres are ever going to retain/lure a hitter like that to PETCO they'll have to overpay in some fashion. The Padres are overpaying with the NTC but that's OK. A major league franchise should be able to survive salaries of $9.5 million, $9.5 million, and $8 million over the next three years. As fans we shouldn't expect the Padres to have the financial flexibility and wherewithal to just begin dumping salary each July if they aren't competing. A major league team who can't aford salaries like this for an entire 162 game schedule should just be contracted.

*No Trade Clause. Not, No Timewarner Cable. Not, North Times County (because that wouldn't make sense).
** At the plate. And in the field but in a bad way. Cameron Maybin? Shade yourself to LF, young buck.

Carlos Quentin will never go the way of Phil Nevin. We won't hear of Park complaints. We won't read curse words from the lips of Quentin as he walks off the field and looks to Josh Byrnes' suite at PETCO. That's not who the Padres signed.

Now if you want to be as fearful as a father of a teenage daughter on prom night* that Carlos Quentin won't be on the field for 60% of all future Padres games due to injury -- well, then that there is a legitimate concern. Join me in that line, won't you?

*This is my future. It could be yours as well. And if you have a son you better teach him some respect. I don't have shotgun. And I really don't need one.

Notes: Interesting Fangraphs write-up on the extension.

3 comments:

  1. It looks like a good deal to me. Quentin has mentioned losing some weight to take a load off his knees, and Buddy is smart enough to give him a periodic breather. Another factor is moving in the fences.

    Quentin has hit at least two shots to right that were caught about five feet in front of the right field 12 foot fence. Move the fence in 10 feet, lower it to 8 feet, and move the gaps in from 400 feet to 390, and he has all-fields homer power at home.

    The signal the move sends to the fans is the biggest part: we're no longer in the "trade productive veterans for more magic beans" mode. For me, it's refreshing to see a slugger who WANTS to stay at Petco. We had another slugger from Chula Vista who probably would have left even if the Padres had the money he wanted.

    Larry
    OB

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  2. Well said, Larry. Although I'm not sure about moving those fences to get CQ a few more HRs. Quentin can pull it out of PETCO. Let's leave the fences as is and surround him with guys who can hit those gaps and then run, run, run!

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  3. Besides, the past four years he's only averaged missing 27.8% of his teams' games. Yep, that's a real stat. :)

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