Gwynn Numbers: A Weird Angle To 1994

I wanted to do some comparative player research but I've been derailed by Tony Gwynn's epic 1994 season. This post is not about WAR (Wins Above Replacement). But that's where it starts . . .

I wanted to compare Gwynn's highest WAR season to that of a player who shall remain nameless (maybe I'll look at him next week). I figured I would start with the strike shortened 1994 season, the year of the gaudy .394 AVG. Surprisingly*, at 3.4 WAR, 1994 was only Tony Gwynn's 8th best season according to Wins Above Replacement. Crazy, I know.

*Surprising to me anyway. The Gwynn seasons that always stand out to me are 1994 because of the run at .400 but also 1997 (5.2 WAR .372/.409/.547). In 1997, at age 37, Gwynn showed a slugging surge with career highs in HR (17) and RBI (119). This was the year Tony fully implemented the theories from his talks with Ted Williams at the 1992 All-Star game. I think Ted had yelled at him for not turning on inside pitches with authority. Something like that.

To look at Gwynn's highest season, again according to WAR, one look no further than 1987 where, at 8.1, he finished 8th in NL MVP* voting. In '87 Gwynn had a slash-line of .370/.447/.511 where he led the league in batting average and hits. His league leading hits included 13 triples.

*According to Baseball-Reference.com anything above 8 WAR is an MVP caliber season. Of course the Padres stunk in 1987 (65-97 finishing dead last in the 6 team NL West) and it would be straight-up crazy-talk to award the MVP to a guy on a crappy team. Andre Dawson won the MVP in '87 and the Cubs were pretty awesome that year.

But this post is not about WAR. I want to get back to the 1994 season and Gwynn's magical run at .400.

After 110 games the season came to an end and Gwynn led the league in hits (165) BA (.394) and OBP (.454). There was one more category in which Gwynn was the league leader at year's end. Any guesses?

If you guessed GDP (double plays grounded into) then you are a miserable sob who doesn't deserve to bask in the eternal glow of Mr. Padre's bronze statue at the top of the hill in the Park in the Park! But if that was your guess you are a miserable sob with some knowledge. Let's apply that knowledge!

With 20 GDP, Gwynn led the league in 1994. He hit into 20 double plays again the next year but it took him 20 more games to do it. But again, very surprised by this stat. Why so many GDP from a guy who nearly hit .400 for the season?

Gwynn was 34 in 1994 and based on this 1995 Fleer baseball card the weight around the waste is becoming evident.

In 1994 he no longer stole bases like he did from 1984-1989 when he averaged 34 swipes per season. He stole a scant 5 bases in 1994 but would follow it up with 17 in 1995. So we can't really say that his speed was entirely gone, although his knees were on their way. There's not necessarily a correlation between stolen bases and GDP, but I'm looking for an explanation of some sort.

What about injury? He did miss 7 games during the strike shortened season. After coming out during the 5th inning of the opener Tony missed the next 6 games. Could it have been a knee strain? Something that slowed him down enough to get doubled-up with greater frequency?

Where does Gwynn rank for GDP in his career? According to the Baseball Almanac Gwynn ranks 23rd all-time in GDP. If you look at the those ranked above him it's a pretty stellar list of Hall-of-Famers and other recognizable names. Of those ranking above Gwynn only the name of Clemente would I associate with any type of speed*, most of the honorees being more the lumbering type. The list also confirms that if you play long enough you're likely to be a part of a bad statistical measurement.

*This is a dubious claim. I never saw Clemente play and his career totals for stolen bases are paltry (6 per season). But when I think of Clemente I always think of that clip of him running the bases. He looked fast (see 5:12 of clip). Maybe it was just the effort with which he ran.

What about Ted Williams' GDP during his great 1941 campaign when he hit .406? Let's put it this way: Williams grounded into 21 double plays . . . if you combine his famous .406 season of '41 and his .388 year of 1957. Ted did have high seasons of GDP (22 in 1949 and 19 in 1958 at age 39) but in each of those years he hit .343 or below. Of course, Ted was more of a fly-ball hitter with that slight uppercut swing. So maybe it makes perfect sense that Ted Williams never had an overly high GDP total.

Tony Gwynn was not a flyball hitter. He plied his trade peppering the 5.5 hole between third and short and maybe that's where the answer lies. Tony Gwynn hit the ball on the screws and he hit it on the ground and he never did it more consistently than 1994.

At the premature end of the '94 season, Tony Gwynn led the league in GDP -- while hitting .394. And that distinction still blows me away.